Depth * Company * Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Performance exceeded expectations in 2019, focusing on layout opportunities in epidemics

Shanxi Fenjiu released a quick performance report, with operating income of 119 in 2019.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 26 over the same period last year.

57%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed 都市夜网 companies.

24 ppm, an increase of 37 over the same period last year.

64%, budget benefit 2.

33 yuan, an increase of 37 over the same period last year.

06%.

Revenue was in line with market expectations, and net profit was slightly lower than our expectations, but higher than market expectations.

Key points of support level The reform of state-owned enterprises continued to advance. The two sides of Qinghua and Bofen led the middle, and the provincial additional force became the main growth point. In 2019, the revenue growth rate reached 26.

6%, which significantly exceeded the initial plan, of which 4Q19 increased by 29.

4%, faster than the previous month.

(1) Reform dividends continue to be reflected. In 2019, we promoted strategic synergy with China Resources Ventures, implemented stock incentives for core technical 天津夜网 business personnel, and became a “sample of Fenjiu” in the reform of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi and even across the country.

(2) In terms of products, combining the data from the first three quarters of 19th and the dealer conference information, we judge that the growth rate of low-end Bofen and high-end blue and white in 2019 will obviously exceed the company’s average level, and continue to drive the middle.

According to media information such as Weijiu, the blue and white strategy conference was held in Guangzhou in mid-November 2019. The company combed the blue and white fen wine series. We judge that the 4Q19 blue and white series is expected to accelerate significantly.

The old Baifen series in the middle price band grew steadily.

Considering that in the second quarter, the product line of low-end wines such as Fen brand was sorted out, the growth rate of series wines was slow.

(3) In terms of regions, the markets outside the province have taken over the province as the main source of growth. According to the information of the dealer conference, the number of markets for fenjiu with more than billions of dollars has doubled, and there have been 18 billion-level markets outside the province.The proportion outside the province has exceeded the province.

Net profit growth in 2019 was 37%, of which 4Q19 net profit growth was about 65%, a significant increase from the previous quarter.

The proportion of blue-and-white series with high gross profit margin may increase in the fourth quarter of 19, and the selling expenses may be effectively controlled.

In the long run, with the expansion of sales scale and improvement of governance structure, the company has huge room for improvement in profitability and is expected to move closer to similar enterprises.

Shanxi Fen Jiu is a variety that our team has continuously recommended in the past 3 years. At this stage, it continues to be optimistic and pay attention to the layout opportunities in the epidemic.

We are optimistic that the long-term logic of Fenjiu will remain unchanged, the reform will promote the release of institutional dividends, high-end products and markets outside the province can maintain high growth, and there is still room for interaction within the potential.

Under the epidemic situation, including the liquor listed companies in Fenjiu, there is pressure to lower the 2020 target. The current market has certain expectations. If there is continued adjustment, it will usher in a good layout opportunity.

It is estimated that we will adjust the profit forecast for 2019-2020 based on the performance report and the latest epidemic situation. It is estimated that the EPS for 19-21 will be 2 respectively.

33, 2.

72, 3.

59 yuan, corresponding to 19, 21 and 35 times PE, respectively, maintain BUY rating.

The main risks facing the rating epidemic have affected short-term demand, and channel inventory has risen.