Aojiahua (002614) Note: The year of adjustment has passed and marginal improvement has begun

On the whole, 2019 is the year of adjustment for the company, and multiple pressures are concentrated. The overall performance of the fourth quarter is still under significant pressure, but the revenue growth has begun to rebound.

Considering 夜来香体验网 the company’s recent launch of the collection brand IHOCO, multi-category + multi-brands have begun to enter the low-to-mid-price segment, focusing on sinking the market, trying to start volume, replacing overseas dealers’ capacity expansion + pickup rhythm return to normal, the company is expected to continue to improve margins in 2020.

The growth rate of Q4 improved slightly from the previous quarter, and the performance was under pressure. It is expected that the marginal improvement will continue for 20 years.

According to the performance report, in 2019 (statutory audit, the same below) income53.

1 ‰, at least -2.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

200 million, previously -27%; net profit deducted from non-attribution3.

10,000 yuan, at least -9.

3%.

Among them, Q4 single quarter income of 15.

0 million yuan, -10% for ten years; net profit attributable to mother 1.

10,000 yuan, at least -12.

1%; net profit after deduction is 0.

9 trillion, -26 a year.

3%.

The growth rate of Q4 showed a small marginal improvement over Q3, basically in line with expectations.

The Q4 company has not yet been able to resume positive growth. It is estimated that it is still mainly due to the internal adjustments of the direct sales channels and the MEDISANA brand. The export to the United States has been repaired compared to Q3.

At the same time, it is estimated that the company’s Q4 has improved against the trend in R & D expansion, driving the operating profit margin to increase by more than 4 pcts.

Under the background of the impact of trade friction and consumption environment, we continue to be optimistic about the company’s continued marginal improvement in 2020.

On the whole, 2019 is an adjustment year, and multiple pressures are concentrated.

On the whole, 2019 is the year of adjustment for the company. Under the background of trade friction, weak consumer environment and internal adjustment, performance indicators are under pressure, but it is estimated that internal independent brands may still be about + 10%.

In terms of different channels, it is estimated that e-commerce, distribution and other channels can still maintain a slight growth. Among them, during the Double Eleven event, the company’s total channel (online + offline) revenue exceeded 100 million US dollars, a faster growth than the same period last year.Jingdong Health Appliance ranked first in this ranking.

In 2020, internal adjustments such as the direct marketing channel and the MEDISANA brand will be completed with a high probability. The impact of material performance will basically bottom out and the growth rate will be improved; the company’s overseas dealer expansion and progress will be completed, and the ODM export growth rate will be repaired.

Complete product line and improve brand matrix.

Since 2019, the company has launched a number of
Products in the 2w price band are mainly more cost-effective. Under the background of declining consumption and high-end product sales being hindered, they further complement their product lines and expand product coverage.

In September 2019, the Aojiahua brand was renewed, and the new spokesperson Peng Yuyan was launched to talk to the younger and smarter consumer groups. At the same time, it launched the sub-brand ihoco Easy Companion to create a healthy black technology product collection store with multiple categories and brands, focusing on sinkingmarket.

At present, the market structure of low-end massage chairs is still highly fragmented. Leading companies have entered the market to accelerate market competition, gradually optimize the structure, and continue to provide incremental performance.

Short-term shock consolidation, and medium-to-long-term performance growth space.

Domestic short-term consumption has been affected by the decline in economic growth and trade frictions. However, in the medium and long term, domestic consumption power represented by the middle class is still being replaced.

The main axis of massage chairs is subject to factors such as high unit prices and insufficient consumer awareness. The domestic expansion and penetration rates are at a level. The per capita penetration rate is only 1/10 of South Korea and 1/20 of Japan. There is still insufficient room for long-term improvement.

Aojiahua is a leader in the massage appliance industry, with a well-developed internal layout, leading the industry in terms of brand, technology, and quality. It is expected that the company will continue to achieve steady growth in performance in the medium to long term.

Risk factors: OGAWA’s sales progress is lower than expected; the penetration rate of domestic massage chairs is increasing much faster than expected; changes in the exchange rate of the RMB; raw material prices are rising.

Investment suggestion: 北京桑拿 Affected by multiple factors including the decline in domestic consumption + Sino-US trade friction, the EPS forecast for 2019/2020/2021 is reduced to zero.

57/0.

72/0.

87 yuan (previous forecast was 0.

62/0.
78/0.
94 yuan, 2018 EPS 0.

79 yuan), the current price corresponds to 15/12/10 times the PE.

The company is a high-end leader in self-owned brands. In the short term, it is subject to downward pressure on consumption. Long-term products have a well-developed channel layout.